Global Automotive Brand × Media Impact Modeling
Global Automotive Brand × Media Impact Modeling
Global Automotive Brand × Media Impact Modeling
Year
2020-2021
Year
2020-2021
Year
2020-2021
Type
Marketing Mix Modeling · Analytics · Executive Decision Support
Type
Marketing Mix Modeling · Analytics · Executive Decision Support
Type
Marketing Mix Modeling · Analytics · Executive Decision Support
Timeframe
52 weeks
Timeframe
52 weeks
Timeframe
52 weeks
Overview
Overview
Overview
A global automotive brand needed a clearer understanding of how media investment translated into real business outcomes — not just impressions or clicks.
The goal was to connect media activity to build-and-price behavior, credit applications, and ultimately vehicle sales, and to do so with enough confidence to support executive decision-making on a weekly basis.
I was engaged to design a modeling framework that could quantify media impact despite significant data blind spots downstream.
A global automotive brand needed a clearer understanding of how media investment translated into real business outcomes — not just impressions or clicks.
The goal was to connect media activity to build-and-price behavior, credit applications, and ultimately vehicle sales, and to do so with enough confidence to support executive decision-making on a weekly basis.
I was engaged to design a modeling framework that could quantify media impact despite significant data blind spots downstream.
A global automotive brand needed a clearer understanding of how media investment translated into real business outcomes — not just impressions or clicks.
The goal was to connect media activity to build-and-price behavior, credit applications, and ultimately vehicle sales, and to do so with enough confidence to support executive decision-making on a weekly basis.
I was engaged to design a modeling framework that could quantify media impact despite significant data blind spots downstream.
/01
/01
/01
Challenge
Challenge
Challenge
The brand faced three major challenges:
Disconnected performance signals — media data lived separately from build-and-price tools, finance applications, and sales
Tier 3 dealership opacity — dealership-level sales data operated as a black box, limiting direct attribution
Executive pressure for clarity — leadership needed defensible insight, not retrospective reporting
Traditional attribution approaches were insufficient given the lack of clean, end-to-end data.
The brand faced three major challenges:
Disconnected performance signals — media data lived separately from build-and-price tools, finance applications, and sales
Tier 3 dealership opacity — dealership-level sales data operated as a black box, limiting direct attribution
Executive pressure for clarity — leadership needed defensible insight, not retrospective reporting
Traditional attribution approaches were insufficient given the lack of clean, end-to-end data.
The brand faced three major challenges:
Disconnected performance signals — media data lived separately from build-and-price tools, finance applications, and sales
Tier 3 dealership opacity — dealership-level sales data operated as a black box, limiting direct attribution
Executive pressure for clarity — leadership needed defensible insight, not retrospective reporting
Traditional attribution approaches were insufficient given the lack of clean, end-to-end data.
/02
/02
/02
Approach
Approach
Approach
The solution was to shift from attribution to predictive, proxy-based modeling.
1. Proxy-Based Outcome Mapping
We mapped media activity to measurable downstream signals including:
Build-and-price interactions
Credit application volume
Regional sales indicators
These served as leading indicators where direct dealership data was unavailable.
2. Solving the Tier 3 Data Black Box
To work around opaque dealership data, we identified the closest behavioral and geographic proxies and used them as inputs into the model — effectively reconstructing impact where direct measurement wasn’t possible.
3. Fast, Multi-Regression MMM
I built a live, multi-regression marketing mix model that:
Ingested media activity in near real time
Modeled lagged and cumulative effects
Produced directional guidance rather than static post-campaign analysis
4. Executive-Ready Output
The model was designed specifically to support the CMO’s Monday executive meeting, providing a consistent, trusted view of:
Media contribution to demand
Expected impact on sales
Scenarios for reallocation and optimization
The solution was to shift from attribution to predictive, proxy-based modeling.
1. Proxy-Based Outcome Mapping
We mapped media activity to measurable downstream signals including:
Build-and-price interactions
Credit application volume
Regional sales indicators
These served as leading indicators where direct dealership data was unavailable.
2. Solving the Tier 3 Data Black Box
To work around opaque dealership data, we identified the closest behavioral and geographic proxies and used them as inputs into the model — effectively reconstructing impact where direct measurement wasn’t possible.
3. Fast, Multi-Regression MMM
I built a live, multi-regression marketing mix model that:
Ingested media activity in near real time
Modeled lagged and cumulative effects
Produced directional guidance rather than static post-campaign analysis
4. Executive-Ready Output
The model was designed specifically to support the CMO’s Monday executive meeting, providing a consistent, trusted view of:
Media contribution to demand
Expected impact on sales
Scenarios for reallocation and optimization
The solution was to shift from attribution to predictive, proxy-based modeling.
1. Proxy-Based Outcome Mapping
We mapped media activity to measurable downstream signals including:
Build-and-price interactions
Credit application volume
Regional sales indicators
These served as leading indicators where direct dealership data was unavailable.
2. Solving the Tier 3 Data Black Box
To work around opaque dealership data, we identified the closest behavioral and geographic proxies and used them as inputs into the model — effectively reconstructing impact where direct measurement wasn’t possible.
3. Fast, Multi-Regression MMM
I built a live, multi-regression marketing mix model that:
Ingested media activity in near real time
Modeled lagged and cumulative effects
Produced directional guidance rather than static post-campaign analysis
4. Executive-Ready Output
The model was designed specifically to support the CMO’s Monday executive meeting, providing a consistent, trusted view of:
Media contribution to demand
Expected impact on sales
Scenarios for reallocation and optimization
/03
/03
/03
Results
Results
Results
85% accuracy in predicting vehicle sales based on media activity
Clear linkage established between media investment and build-and-price behavior, credit applications, and sales
Executive confidence increased through a repeatable, weekly decision framework
Reduced reliance on incomplete dealership reporting
85% accuracy in predicting vehicle sales based on media activity
Clear linkage established between media investment and build-and-price behavior, credit applications, and sales
Executive confidence increased through a repeatable, weekly decision framework
Reduced reliance on incomplete dealership reporting
85% accuracy in predicting vehicle sales based on media activity
Clear linkage established between media investment and build-and-price behavior, credit applications, and sales
Executive confidence increased through a repeatable, weekly decision framework
Reduced reliance on incomplete dealership reporting
Increase in online orders
+62%
+62%
Return customer rate
+40%
+40%
/04
/04
/04
This project was about translating purpose into design — creating a clear, thoughtful brand and digital experience that reflects the client’s values and supports their growth across every touchpoint.
This project was about translating purpose into design — creating a clear, thoughtful brand and digital experience that reflects the client’s values and supports their growth across every touchpoint.
This project was about translating purpose into design — creating a clear, thoughtful brand and digital experience that reflects the client’s values and supports their growth across every touchpoint.
Branding / Campaign
Golden Frame Agency
When Golden Frame was ready to launch a new service, they asked us to make a statement. We created a campaign identity that’s bold and expressive, using oversized typography, bright color accents, and social-ready visuals.